Israel vs Iran: Israel Loses

Today I have already posted the excellent analyses of the (possibly temporary) failure of the USA to submit Iran to its will: one by Alexander Mercouris, the other by Soraya Sepahpour Ulrich. I shall not repeat their very arguments here, mainly because both see this as a conflict between the USA and Iran, whereas I see that as a conflict between Israel and Iran in which Israel attempted, but failed, to get the USA to fight on its behalf. This is also, albeit to a lesser degree, a conflict opposing the House of Saud to Iran, and the KSA is the other big loser here. But first, let us look at the real causes of this confrontation.

First and foremost, I have never accepted the theory that the reason behind this was some kind of Iranian military nuclear program. While there is no doubt that Iran has been trying to master a host of nuclear technologies for many years, and while some of them could conceivable by used for military purposes, I am absolutely convinced that the US Israel Lobby and the Neocons have used this as a pretext to trigger a confrontation between Iran and the USA. Why do I say that? For two reasons:

First, there has never been any real evidence of an Iranian military nuclear program, but even more important is the fact that Iran never had any need for nuclear weapons. A lot of anti-Iranian propaganda is directly predicated on the notion that having nuclear weapons is highly desirable, yields some big advantage, and that all nations would want to acquire them. This is utter nonsense. In reality, possessing a few nuclear devices would only turn these devices into high priority targets for destruction by the USA and/or Israel. And even if, by some miracle, the Iranians managed to hide these devices while deploying them on missiles or aircraft, using any one such device would guarantee a massive retaliation from the Empire. What is the point of having a few nukes when Israel has hundreds? Finally, the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has declared many times that nuclear weapons are forbidden for Iran because they are un-Islamic. But we are so used to being ruled by lying politicians that we have apparently lost the ability to imagine that any leader would actually speak the truth, be guided by his conscience or, even less so, his faith. So we just dismissed it all.

Second, the threat which Iran really poses to Israel (and the KSA) is not a nuclear one – it is a civilizational one. Think of it:

Iran is an Islamic Republic and the only country on the planet which has dared to openly defy both Israel and the USA. Not only that, it also represent a radically different model of Islam than the one of the Saudi Wahabis. Iran is a country which has managed to survive a war unleashed against it by the joint efforts of the USA, the Soviet Union, France and Iraq, which prevailed against the most powerful Baathist ruler of the Middle-East, and which then proceeded to survive economically and politically in spite of decades of crippling sanctions imposed by all the industrialized countries on the planet. Furthermore, and in contrast to all the Arab and Muslim countries out there, Iran is the only one which as always truly supported the Palestinian causeand which has provided crucial backing for the most formidable national liberation movement on the planet: Hezbollah. So yes, Iran is very, very dangerous for Israel and for the Saudis.

This is why since roughly 2002 the usual cabal of US deep state actors, the Neocons, the Israel Lobby, the Israelis themselves and, of course, the Saudis have embarked on a massive campaign to force Iran to its knees and give in to totally ridiculous demands which go way beyond what the NPT mandates (note: while Iran has always been a member in good standing of the NPT, Israel has never accepted to become a member; but then, Israel is not a “rogue state” but the “only democracy in the Middle-East”, right?).

Then things began acquiring their own momentum: if the Empire and Israel had decreed that Iran must either comply or be turned into ruins (economically or militarily) then this absolutely must happen. But, of course, it did not. So breaking Iran soon became a goal in itself: to prove that nobody can defy the AngloZionists and survive. Iran, of course, not only survived but prospered. And thanks to the fantastically short-sighted policies of the USA and Israel, Iran actually managed to increase its influence in the region, especially after the US invasion of Iraq. Not only has Iran become a key player in Iraq, but thanks to the “Divine Victory” of Hezbollah against the “invincible Tsahal” in 2006 Iran also became the ally and patron of the only military force in the region to have single-handedly defeated the Zionist state.

As for the Saudis, they are terrified of this Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah coalition which, they believe, is threatening them, and their anti-Shia crusade in Bahrein, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The Saudis also fear the fact that Iran is the proof that an Islamic state does not have to be a backward, primitive and oppressive regime, but that Islam, modernity and people-power can coexist and be successfully combined (hence the failure of the CIA-backed Iranian elites to overthrown the Islamic Republic during the “Gucci Revolution”).

It is therefore not surprising that the Israelis and Saudis are absolutely livid at the agreement negotiated between Iran and the P5+1. For these two countries, the lifting of sanctions against Iran, even combined with the imposition of new, “mini-sanctions”, by the USA, represents the failure of over a decade of sustained anti-Iranian efforts.

This is now the 2nd time that Obama has agreed to basically exchange something against nothing: the first time around, Obama had to cancel a US attack against Syria in exchange for the (costly) destruction of utterly useless Syrian chemical weapons, and now Obama is lifting sanctions in exchange for the monitoring of a non-existent Iranian military nuclear program. The Israelis fully understand that, and it is no wonder that they hate Obama with a passion.

I sure hope that I am wrong, but I cannot conceive of the Israelis or Saudis simply accepting this situation. There is no way the Zionist and Wahabi crazies will allow Iran to successfully humiliate them and continue to prosper and grow right in their “back yard” (from their point of view, of course).

In purely military terms, neither Israel nor the KSA have what it takes to successfully attack Iran, nevermind defeating it. The Israelis were not even capable of controlling a minor Lebanese town right across their own border border (Bint Jbeil) even though they tried for 33 day. As for the insanely wealthy Saudis can’t even defeat the dirt-poor Houthis in Yemen. If anything, the KSA and Israel are the proof that neither money not expensive high-tech hardware is not what builds a strong military force. Compare them with the Iranians who are the folks who trained Hezbollah! QED.

As for the US armed forces, they are overstretched, over-committed and barely holding on to a few positions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they don’t have what it takes to fight Iran either, at least not on the ground. And, let’s be honest here, the US armed forces are much better at organizing high-visibility “PR drives” (literally) involving a few APCS and Humvees in the Baltics, the Ukraine and Poland then at fighting a determined enemy. So even if most Presidential candidates now speak about “confronting Russia”, the reality is that the US cannot do much more than bombing a country like Serbia, and even that took the full support of NATO air forces and ended up in an abject failure (at least from the purely military point of view).

This is why the Empire will have to turn to its traditional set of dirty tricks: false flags, support for various terrorist groups, subversion of the Islamic Republic by means of the local money elites, sabotage, “human rights” campaigns (à la Neda), support for “gay rights”, arming of separatists groups, etc.

But, at least for the time being, this is a huge victory for Iran and and equally huge defeat for Israel: the poor Zionists have now been robbed of not one, but two wars they wanted so badly, and even their “success” in Libya is not enough of a consolation. I can hear the desperate oy vey shouts even from here.