Weak Iran and Peace With Israel, Here's Why Gulf States Would Rather See Trump Re-Elected
Although recent polls show a gap between President Donald Trump and his rival Joe Biden, a Saudi expert says his country would like to see him stay in power, not only because of his policies vis-a-vis Iran but also because he will make sure that the normalisation process with Israel will go on.
With US elections approaching, a recent poll shows that Democratic candidate Joe Biden maintains his grip on the 2020 presidential race.
According to a CBS News poll, Biden currently holds a 10-point advantage over President Donald Trump and surveys predict he is most likely to maintain that gap.
For Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst, that growing gap is not a good sign, primarily because Trump's foreign policy has always been in line with the needs of Saudi Arabia and a number of other Gulf states.
"He might be a controversial figure, who always speaks his mind, but he is reliable and sticks to his promises. Plus he understands the region well, and we have mutual trust and several common interests," he said over the phone.
Common Interests Prevail
These "interests" mainly boil down to the perceived threat posed by Iran.
The long-standing hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which revolves around religious differences, has evolved into a geopolitical confrontation, with each side trying to position itself as the leader of the Muslim world and a regional power.
The Iranian nuclear programme hasn't helped to ease these tensions either, and as the Islamic Republic has continued to enrich uranium and build centrifuges, Riyadh has kept stressing that Tehran's nuclear project was aimed at developing weapons of mass destruction that would eventually be used against its enemies, including the kingdom.
Washington under Trump has had similar fears. That's why, soon after assuming office, the new president withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed a series of sanctions that were aimed at weakening Tehran and curbing its nuclear programme, actions that have been met with enthusiasm in Riyadh.
Now, however, with the prospect of Trump leaving and Biden coming to power becoming real, this policy might be at risk.
"If Biden comes to power, he will empower our enemy Iran and will put us back to what we had several years ago," said Al Ibrahim referring to former vice president's intention to sit down for talks with Iran.
Biden's potential flirting with Iran is far from the only concern of the Gulf states.
As a Democratic party candidate, Biden has always been associated with former President Barack Obama, whose policies have not always been to the liking of some Arab leaders.
First, they didn't like the way he handled the Syrian war and regarded him as being too soft in coping with the crisis. Then, they frowned at the way he slammed Bahrain's government on human rights issues and, finally, they disliked his pro-Arab Spring rhetoric and the support he showed Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood movement, which is outlawed in some Arab states.
The return of that "methodology," says Al Ibrahim, might cause "a lot of problems in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries".
Getting Closer to Israel
He also believes it will stall the Gulf's normalisation process with Israel.
The United Arab Emirates is already set to ink a historic agreement with Israel in the end of this month, and neighbouring Bahrain is expected to follow suit, with reports suggesting it will announce the establishment of official ties with the Jewish state in the upcoming weeks.
But Al Ibrahim says that although that process is unstoppable, it will be halted until it is clear "who is in charge in the White House".
"If Trump wins, I expect the peace process to continue. The Gulf states have come to the realisation that we can coexist with Israel, especially given the fact that we have a common threat - that of Iran."
At the end of the day, says Al Ibrahim, it will be the US public that will determine who takes America's top job and although polls predict doom and gloom for Trump, he remains optimistic.
"Trump is strong when it comes to security and he understand what's good for the nation's economy. More and more Americans have now come to realise this. So don't be surprised if he wins that race."
- Source : Elizabeth Blade
