The conflict in Ukraine seen from Turkey
Turkish military analysts have no illusions about the fate of weapons in Ukraine. It is a Game Over that NATO refuses to admit by mobilizing more and more financial resources and equipment while carrying out one of the loudest propaganda campaigns of all time.
President Erdogan knows this only too well and that is why he has preferred to keep three channels of communication permanently open with Moscow and has refused any participation in the sanctions against Russia. “We don't spit on the future” is the key word in Ankara. The fulcrum of the world has shifted to Asia-Pacific and Turkey should be ready for the new world whose contours are looming by 2030.
For the Turks, the military situation matters very little even if the ongoing conflict in Ukraine provides a showcase for the performance of the fearsome Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2 attack drone equipping the Ukrainian armed forces. The real stake goes far beyond Ukraine and concerns the entire architecture of the international financial system. Dollar dominance is coming to an end and the energy transition has failed miserably. According to the Turkish president's entourage, Turkey should adapt very quickly to an unprecedented configuration and will have to seize a unique opportunity to assert itself as a power capable of maintaining order and peace in an increasingly more unstable and declining. For Turkish decision makers, a Turkish humanitarian intervention in the City of London or in the heart of Paris aimed at maintaining peace and protecting supplies and the safety of civilian populations is not an unlikely political-fiction scenario. For them, sooner or later Turkey is condemned to play this role as a new frontier with an area of ??instability and poverty.
For now, the Turks are waiting. Russian objectives in Ukraine have not changed one iota. They believe that the Russian plan has a delay but will achieve its objectives. Russian strategy is derived from Soviet operational art and seems to tolerate casualties that no Western army could accept without certain political risk. It is the post-war period that will be crucial. Turkey has moved closer to the Gulf countries, Israel and China, while taking over its NATO allies, which it considers unreliable and inconsistent. For Erdogan, it's already the next day.
- Source : Strategika 51
